Title: World energy projections to 2030

Authors: Patrick Criqui, Nikolaos Kouvaritakis

Addresses: Institut d'Economie et de Politique de l'Energie, BP47, 38040 Grenoble CEDEX 09, France. ' Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, JRC-IPTS, Edificio World Trade Center, Isla de Ia Cartuja s/n, E-41092, Sevilla, Spain

Abstract: This paper provides a description of the international energy projections elaborated with the POLES energy model for the purpose of analysing, in other papers of this issue, the impacts of technological change at world level and to 2030. Section 2 describes the key exogenous hypotheses on population and economic growth used for this projection, as well as the main resulting changes for the world energy system and in terms of CO₂ emissions. In Section 3, the dynamics of the energy systems are further analysed for four main world regions, while Section 4 is dedicated to the identification of the key uncertainties and of their possible impacts on future energy development. Finally, the last section presents the key messages of this outlook, which shows a rapidly growing world economy and energy consumption with increasing oil and gas prices, although this last feature remains subject to uncertainties on resource endowment estimates.

Keywords: world energy outlook; energy demand; energy supply; power generation; CO₂ emissions; oil and gas resources; international energy prices.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2000.004385

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2000 Vol.14 No.1/2/3/4, pp.116 - 136

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

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