Title: Expected trends of regional climate change for the Carpathian Basin for the 21st century

Authors: Ildiko Pieczka; Rita Pongracz; Judit Bartholy

Addresses: Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University, H-1518 Budapest, P.O. Box 32, Hungary. ' Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University, H-1518 Budapest, P.O. Box 32, Hungary. ' Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University, H-1518 Budapest, P.O. Box 32, Hungary

Abstract: The Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested into Global Climate Models (GCMs) are expected to improve the regional climate change scenarios for the European subregions. This paper discusses the RCM experiments for the end of the 21st century using the model Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) for the Carpathian Basin. Expected future changes in mean values, distributions and empirical probabilities are analysed for the period 2071–2100 (compared to 1961–1990, as a reference period). Significant warming and annual drying is projected, together with substantial changes in the distribution of daily mean temperature and monthly mean precipitation.

Keywords: RCM; regional climate models; PRECIS; impact studies; expected climate change; Carpathian Basin; temperature; precipitation; warming; annual drying; mean temperature; mean precipitation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2011.042605

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.46 No.1/2, pp.6 - 17

Available online: 18 Sep 2011 *

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