Title: Performance of the SNAP model in an ENSEMBLE exercise of simulating real-time dispersion from a nuclear accident

Authors: Jerzy Bartnicki, Jorgen Saltbones, Anstein Foss

Addresses: Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway. ' Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway. ' Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

Abstract: A real-time dispersion model SNAP (Severe Nuclear Accident Program) has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute to simulate long-range atmospheric transport of the radioactive debris released during nuclear accidents. This model is the most important tool for meteorologist on duty responsible for preparation of the real-time forecast of the dispersion. The forecast is then used by the National Crisis Committee in Norway responsible for management of the crisis situation in case of a nuclear accident. The question then naturally arises, ||What is the uncertainty of dispersion model forecasts?|| To get a measure of the inherent model uncertainty in such forecasts, National Meteorological Services (NMS) in Europe have joined their resources together in the EU-project ||ENSEMBLE||. The project is strictly internet oriented and its main aim is to develop a new internet based decision support system for operational use by the national decision makers – in real accidents. Selected results from one of the project exercises, seen from Norwegian perspective, are presented here.

Keywords: decision support system; nuclear accident; model inter-comparison; uncertainty assessment; internet application; radioactive debris; radioactive pollution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2003.004239

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2003 Vol.20 No.1/2/3/4/5/6, pp.22 - 32

Published online: 10 May 2004 *

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