Title: Development and trends of China's automobile market: evidence from urban household ownership of cars, bicycles, motorcycles and motorbikes

Authors: Qingbin Wang

Addresses: Department of Community Development and Applied Economics, The University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA

Abstract: This paper first examines the development, trends, and regional disparities of China|s automobile production and ownership, then presents a quantitative analysis of urban household ownership of cars, bicycles, motorcycles, and motorbikes (similar to European mopeds), and finally discusses the potential global impacts of China|s emerging automobile market. While the trend analysis of the most recently available time-series data indicates that both production and demand for automobiles, especially cars, in China have increased rapidly since the late 1990s and that China is likely to remain the world|s largest or second largest national automobile market, demand analysis using the urban household survey data by income groups from 1997 to 2008 suggests that the ownership of cars is most elastic with respect to real disposable income, followed by motorbikes and motorcycles, and that the ownership of bicycles has shown a negative but insignificant response to income changes.

Keywords: China; automobile industry; cars; motorbikes; motorcycles; bicycles; bikes; demand elasticities; automobile ownership; urban households; household ownership; automotive production; Chinese auto industry.

DOI: 10.1504/IJATM.2011.039539

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2011 Vol.11 No.2, pp.99 - 113

Published online: 07 Apr 2011 *

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