Title: An evaluation and comparison of the various statistical and deterministic techniques for forecasting the concentration of criteria air pollutants

Authors: Manju Mohan, Anurag Kandya, Manish Yadav

Addresses: Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. ' Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India. ' 531, Dr. Mukherjee Nagar, New Delhi, India

Abstract: A statistical approach is about working through the historical data in a general way and finding guides to future behaviour. In the present study, forecasting of the criteria pollutants has been done using simple statistical techniques and attempt has been made for an inter-comparison of these techniques with various advanced statistical and deterministic techniques. The inter-comparison analysis leads us to the conclusion that there is no single modelling approach which generates optimum results. Considering the uncertainty and unavailability of most of the inputs of deterministic and advance statistical techniques, the methods adopted here are proposed to have great potential for air pollution forecasting.

Keywords: statistical modelling; deterministic models; concentration prediction; criteria pollutants; model evaluation; modelling; air pollution; air quality; pollution forecasting; pollution prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2011.038407

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.44 No.1/2/3/4, pp.96 - 105

Published online: 07 Feb 2011 *

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