Title: Modelling national air quality strategy scenarios with UKIAM: uncertainties emerging from the integration of multiple spatial scales

Authors: Tim Oxley, Helen ApSimon, Marios Valiantis

Addresses: Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, SW7 2AX, UK. ' Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, SW7 2AX, UK. ' AEA Energy and Environment, Harwell, Oxfordshire OX11 0QJ, UK

Abstract: For the UK|s air quality strategy we assessed future scenarios involving reductions of emissions from traffic based on results from the UK integrated assessment model for national emissions integrated with European contributions from the Abatement Strategies Assessment Model. We quantify the uncertainties and assumptions relating to the percentage of primary NO2 in NOX emissions, background NOX concentrations and definition of background primary PM10. We highlight the source apportionment of secondary inorganic aerosols and the significant |imported| contributions to UK PM10 concentrations. It is crucial both to highlight all assumptions and uncertainties in models, and to interpret results and comparisons accordingly.

Keywords: uncertainty; integration of scales; UKIAM; UK integrated assessment model; AQS; air quality strategy; air pollution; multiple spatial scales; modelling; traffic emissions; NOx emissions; PM10; inorganic aerosols; United Kingdom.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2011.038402

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.44 No.1/2/3/4, pp.54 - 61

Published online: 07 Feb 2011 *

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