Title: Towards uncertainty mapping in air-quality modelling and assessment

Authors: Bruce Denby, Agnes Dudek, Sam Erik Walker, Ana Margarida Costa, Alexandra Monteiro, Sef Van den Elshout, Bernard Fisher

Addresses: Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), P.O. Box 100, 2027 Kjeller, Norway. ' Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), P.O. Box 100, 2027 Kjeller, Norway. ' Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), P.O. Box 100, 2027 Kjeller, Norway. ' CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal. ' CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal. ' DCMR Environmental Protection Agency Rijnmond, P.O. Box 843 3100 AV, Schiedam, The Netherlands. ' Risk and Forecasting Science, Environment Agency, Kings Meadow House, Kings Meadow Road, Reading RG1 8DQ, UK

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to promote the use of uncertainty mapping when spatial assessments of air quality are made. A large number of air quality maps are produced for scientific and policy purposes but rarely are corresponding maps of their uncertainty included. The need for such maps and the methods to produce them are described. Several uncertainty parameters are discussed but it is recommended to use the probability density function as the basis of the uncertainty estimates. Several examples are provided discussing indicative uncertainty, ensemble methods, comparisons with observations, spatial representativeness, uncertainty in exceedances and probability of exceedance.

Keywords: air quality; spatial assessment; modelling; uncertainty mapping; data assimilation; Bayesian; probability; exceedance; air pollution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2011.038398

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.44 No.1/2/3/4, pp.14 - 23

Published online: 07 Feb 2011 *

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