Title: Estimating and improving electricity demand function in residential sector with imprecise data by fuzzy regression

Authors: Ali Azadeh, Morteza Saberi, Seyed Farid Ghaderi, Anahita Gitiforouz

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Center of Excellence for Intelligent Based Experimental Mechanics and Department of Engineering Optimization Research, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran. ' Member of Young Researcher Club of Islamic Azad University of Tafresh, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Tafresh, Iran; Institute for Digital Ecosystems and Business Intelligence, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia. ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Center of Excellence for Intelligent Based Experimental Mechanics and Department of Engineering Optimization Research, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran. ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Center of Excellence for Intelligent Based Experimental Mechanics and Department of Engineering Optimization Research, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran

Abstract: This paper presents a fuzzy regression approach for estimation of electricity demand in residential sector with imprecise data. Moreover, electricity consumption in residential sector plays an important role in economical decision-making process. This is also highlighted by the fact that residential sector has the largest share of consumption among all the other sectors including industrial, business, and so on. The importance of fuzzy regression becomes evident by facing imprecise quantities and insufficient amount of data for estimation of energy consumption in residential sector. Fuzzy regression is applied to Iranian residential sectors. A review of a fuzzy linear regression is presented in which the centre regression line has the best ability to interpret training data. The interpretation ability of the regression line can be measured by the proposed index of confidence. Finally, an estimation of electricity demand function in residential sector for three different values of h is presented.

Keywords: electricity demand; residential sectors; fuzzy regression; mathematical programming; fuzzy logic; electricity consumption; Iran; imprecise data.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMOR.2010.033437

International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research, 2010 Vol.2 No.4, pp.405 - 423

Published online: 02 Jun 2010 *

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