Title: Agent-based decision support for failure-prone networked infrastructures

Authors: Koen H. Van Dam, Zofia Lukszo, Rajagopalan Srinivasan

Addresses: Department of Energy and Industry, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. ' Department of Energy and Industry, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. ' Institute of Chemical and Engineering Sciences, 1 Pesek Road, Jurong Island, Singapore 627833, Singapore; Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, National University of Singapore, 4 Engineering Drive 4, Singapore 117576, Singapore

Abstract: The operation of existing infrastructures is often inefficient and subject to failures. When a failure occurs, various stakeholders need to make decisions that are specific to the failure type and bear little resemblance to decisions faced during normal operation. In this work, we demonstrate a model-based approach to making rational decisions in such situations. Agent-based models serve as a suitable paradigm for modelling complex sociotechnical systems. Given the broad similarities between different networked infrastructure systems, an ontology has been developed as the foundation for a |model factory| for such systems. A specific application of this model factory to a refinery supply chain system is described. Further, the use of this simulation model for decision support to manage an abnormal situation in the supply chain is reported.

Keywords: agent-based modelling; decision support; supply chain management; SCM; disturbances; uncertainty; simulation; agent-based systems; multi-agent systems; networked infrastructures; failure-prone infrastructures; decision making; ontology; refinery supply chains.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2009.029112

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2009 Vol.5 No.4, pp.323 - 339

Available online: 04 Nov 2009 *

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