Title: Using Lanchester equations for sequential battle prediction enabling better military decision support

Authors: Patrick Hester, Andreas Tolk

Addresses: Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, Kaufman Hall, Room 241, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA. ' Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, Kaufman Hall, Room 241, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA

Abstract: This paper documents an innovative method for analysing multiple sequential interactions between two forces engaged in battle, to assist military strategists in deploying forces appropriately. It builds on previous combat models for the calculation of probabilistic distributions of battle results and permits analysis of repeated opposing force interactions. The goal is to provide military decision-makers with a more applicable method, enabling better decision-support tools to aid in military planning and operations. The paper makes several recommendations for suggested strategies in sequential battles based on the results of example problems.

Keywords: military decision support; Lanchester equations; battle prediction; defence support systems; sequential interactions; military strategy; force deployment; combat modelling; military decision making; military planning; military operations.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIDSS.2009.028643

International Journal of Intelligent Defence Support Systems, 2009 Vol.2 No.2, pp.76 - 90

Available online: 21 Sep 2009 *

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