Title: Probabilistic approach for biorhythmic analysis to prevent aviation accidents

Authors: R.K. Saket, Wg. Cdr. S.P. Kaushik, Col. Gurmit Singh

Addresses: Department of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Technology, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, UP, India. ' Aviation Research Centre, DRDO, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sobhasariya Engineering College, Sikar, Rajasthan, India. ' Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Allahabad Agricultural Institute – Deemed University, Allahabad, UP, India

Abstract: This paper presents a new methodology, based on the probabilistic approach, for biorhythmic analysis to prevent aviation accidents. The methodology has been developed using the Gaussian distribution technique for reliability evaluation of the aviation system, keeping in mind the biorhythmic effects of the pilot. The normal distributed data of the US Air Force were tested and analysed based on the performance ability of pilot and the peak demand of the performance. The accident zone is that area of operation during which the performance demand exceeds the performance ability of the aircraft pilot. Failure probabilities, considering peak performance demand and the pilot|s ability, have been evaluated using the Gaussian distribution approach. The safety factor concept has also been presented in this paper for biorhythmic analysis to prevent aviation accidents. The stepped incident-duration curve has been utilised to evaluate the pilot|s reliability on the aviation system using Simpson|s 1/3rd rule.

Keywords: aviation accidents; biorhythmic approach; incident-duration curve; performance ability; pilot performance; performance peak demand; accident prone zones; critical days; Gaussian distribution; reliability evaluation; safety factors; biorhythms; aircraft crashes; pilot reliability; aircraft pilots.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIDSS.2008.025017

International Journal of Intelligent Defence Support Systems, 2008 Vol.1 No.4, pp.271 - 289

Published online: 09 May 2009 *

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