Title: Forecasting substitution behaviour of high corrosion-resistant steel by fitting a technology growth curve

Authors: Kyung-Hee Jung

Addresses: Center for Steel Industry Study, POSCO Research Institute, 147 Samsungdong, Kangnamku, Seoul 135-878, Korea

Abstract: Corrosion protection is one of the main concerns in the steel-consuming industries such as the construction and automotive industries. This paper considers technological substitution of corrosion-resistant zinc-aluminium alloyed coated steels in the rapid changes in technology opportunities and threats. Substitution behaviour of galvanised steel is discussed in the most steel-consuming industries, including the impact of price change in raw materials. Then, the technology adoption model of zinc-55%aluminium coated steel is considered in Japan, Korea and China. Finally, the future behaviours of substituting zinc-aluminium coated steel in these countries are predicted by fitting a Fisher-Pry technology growth curve.

Keywords: corrosion resistance; forecasting; growth curve; technological substitution; substitution behaviour; technological change; technology adoption model; TAM; zinc; aluminium alloy; coated steel; corrosion protection; galvanised steel; Japan; Korea; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBSR.2009.024863

International Journal of Business and Systems Research, 2009 Vol.3 No.2, pp.216 - 228

Published online: 01 May 2009 *

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