Title: Advanced bottom-up modelling for national and regional energy planning in response to climate change

Authors: Amit Kanudia, Richard Loulou

Addresses: GERAD and McGill University, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Ste-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7, Canada. GERAD and McGill University, 3000 Chemin de la Cote-Ste-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 2A7, Canada

Abstract: This paper describes an advanced bottom-up approach for modelling the energy-environment sector to study greenhouse gas abatement. Three new features are described that give significant new capabilities to this class of models. These are endogenisation of end-use demands, which allows computation of partial equilibria in energy markets; modelling future uncertainties using multi-stage stochastic programming; and combining several bottom-up models as a multi-region model to explore issues of cooperation and burden-sharing. Each of these new features is illustrated by results taken from large-scale extended MARKAL models of Quebec and Ontario. The focus of the paper is on the nature of issues that can be addressed by this methodology, rather than on specific conclusions drawn from the discussed examples. We believe that a very promising avenue of research lies in exploring the role of multiple advanced bottom-up models in the integrated assessment of climate change.

Keywords: bottom-up energy models; climate change; GHG abatement; multi-region models; stochastic programming; supply-demand equilibrium.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.1999.002292

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 1999 Vol.12 No.2/3, pp.191-216

Published online: 15 Aug 2003 *

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