Title: Load forecast of industries in Beijing based on system dynamics simulation method

Authors: Yongxiu He, Liangqi Wu, Dezhi Li, Furong Li

Addresses: The Business Administration School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P.R. China. ' The Business Administration School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P.R. China. ' The Business Administration School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, P.R. China. ' University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK

Abstract: Power consumption is influenced by many factors. A great deal of events such as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games will greatly accelerate the increase of power consumption of Beijing. From the view of system dynamics, this paper analyses the causal relationship of these factors and constructs the simulation system for electricity and the economy to forecast power demand, which is composed of GDP and electricity consumption intensity, etc. Finally, the model was used to forecast the power consumption for Beijing and proved to be comprehensive, accurate and practical.

Keywords: system dynamics; computer simulation; power consumption; forecasting; Beijing Olympics; Olympic Games; electricity demand; power demand.

DOI: 10.1504/IJENM.2008.020641

International Journal of Enterprise Network Management, 2008 Vol.2 No.4, pp.393 - 407

Available online: 06 Oct 2008 *

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