Title: Preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in multicriteria group decision support for industrial risk and emergency management

Authors: Valentin Bertsch, Jutta Geldermann

Addresses: Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), Universitat Karlsruhe (TH), Hertzstr. 16, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany. ' Chair for Production and Logistics, Universitat Gottingen, Platz der Gottinger Sieben 3, 37073 Gottingen, Germany

Abstract: The resolution of complex decision situations in crisis and remediation management following an industrial emergency requires input from different disciplines. Contributing to the transparency and traceability of decisions and taking subjective preferences into account, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is suitable for involving various stakeholder and expert groups in the decision-making process with diverse background knowledge and different views and responsibilities. The focus of this paper is to highlight the role of MCDA in risk and emergency management in the nuclear power generation sector on the basis of a hypothetical case study. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of the decision-makers| preferences. The aim is to explore the sensitivity of decision-making processes to simultaneous variations of the preference parameters and consequently to contribute to a facilitation of the preference modelling process by comprehensibly visualising and communicating the impact of these preferential uncertainties on the results of the analysis.

Keywords: industrial risk management; multicriteria decision analysis; MCDA; decision support; nuclear power; nuclear energy; emergency mnagement; remediation management; stakeholder involvement; group decision making; preference elicitation; preferential uncertainties.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEM.2008.019905

International Journal of Emergency Management, 2008 Vol.5 No.1/2, pp.7 - 24

Available online: 15 Aug 2008 *

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