Title: Long-term performance targets for nuclear energy. Part 2: Markets and learning rates

Authors: Hans-Holger Rogner, Alan McDonald, Keywan Riahi

Addresses: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 100 A-1400, Vienna, Austria. ' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 100 A-1400, Vienna, Austria. ' International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Institute of Thermal Engineering, Graz University of Technology, Inffeldgasse 25/B, A-8010 Graz, Austria

Abstract: This paper estimates investment cost targets for future nuclear power plants to be competitive in mid-21st century energy markets and beyond. The point of departure is the nuclear market shares derived from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. One provocative result is that substantial nuclear expansion does not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs, largely explained by the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimisation based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today|s deregulating and uncertain energy markets.

Keywords: nuclear power; nuclear energy; global scenarios; long-term; innovation; performance targets; energy markets; demonstration; climate change; emissions; fuel cycles; demonstration; learning; investment costs; cost targets; nuclear investment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2008.019857

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2008 Vol.30 No.1/2/3/4, pp.77 - 101

Published online: 12 Aug 2008 *

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