Title: A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

Authors: Alex Haxeltine, Lorraine Whitmarsh, Noam Bergman, Jan Rotmans, Michel Schilperoord, Jonathan Kohler

Addresses: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. ' Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. ' Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. ' Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands. ' Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands. ' Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Abstract: This paper presents a Conceptual Framework (CF) for analysing and simulating transition dynamics (or radical systemic innovation) that is broadly consistent with both empirical evidence and current theorising about transitions. The framework distinguishes between a dominant socio-technical regime and a number of socio-technical niches. The central feature of the framework is to describe how niches and regime interact to produce a transition dynamic involving either a transformation or a total overthrow of the dominant regime. We base the analysis on reviews of patterns observed in historical transitions, and provide a framework for analysing the processes involved in producing future |sustainability transitions|.

Keywords: sustainability transitions; conceptual framework; agent-based modelling; sustainability assessment; transition modelling; simulation; radical systemic innovation; transition dynamics; sociotechnical regimes; sociotechnical niches; sustainable development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISD.2008.018195

International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 2008 Vol.3 No.1/2, pp.93 - 114

Available online: 11 May 2008 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article