Title: Models for risk management of systems of systems

Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes

Addresses: Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems, University of Virginia, 112A Olsson Hall, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA

Abstract: This paper addresses the need for developing a body of prescriptive theory and methodology for modelling Systems of Systems (SoS). This will enable analysts to appropriately model and understand the SoS evolving behaviour due to the continued forced changes imposed on them. To place this need in historical perspective, the evolution of the field of systems engineering/analysis is briefly reviewed. The complexity of SoS is characterised by the highly interconnected and interdependent physical and economic infrastructure sectors of every country in the world, which introduce significant modelling challenges for the systems analysts. Economic, physical, cyber, workforce, organisational, and international intra- and interdependencies are introduced. Particular economic interdependency models (the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) and its derivatives) follow. Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM) for studying the multiple dimensions of risk to SoS is introduced, followed by the Phantom System Models (PSM) for modelling emergent large-scale SoS.

Keywords: systems of systems; forced changes; historical perspective; economic interdependencies; risk management; SoS models; hierarchical holographic modelling; HHM; phantom system models; PSM.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSE.2008.018138

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2008 Vol.1 No.1/2, pp.222 - 236

Published online: 02 May 2008 *

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