Title: Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels

Authors: Ivan Dimov, Gerald Geernaert, Zahari Zlatev

Addresses: Institute of Parallel Processing, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria. ' Los Alamos National Laboratory, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, MS C-305, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA. ' Department of Atmospheric Environment, National Environmental Research Institute, Frederiksborgvej 399 P.O. Box 358, Roskilde DK-4000, Denmark

Abstract: Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.

Keywords: future climatic change; air pollution models; scenarios; pollution levels; environmental modelling; environmental pollution; Denmark; Europe.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2008.017103

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2008 Vol.32 No.2, pp.200 - 230

Published online: 13 Feb 2008 *

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