Title: A European model for the number of End-of-Life Vehicles

Authors: Frits M. Andersen, Helge V. Larsen, Mette Skovgaard

Addresses: Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. ' Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. ' European Topic Centre on Resource and Waste Management ETC/RWM, Hoejbro Plads 4, DK-1200 Copenhagen K, Denmark

Abstract: This paper describes a model for the projection of the number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) and presents a baseline projection. Historical data on population, the number of cars per capita (car density), GDP per capita, and the vintage distribution of cars are combined to model ELVs. The lifetime of vintages of cars is described by a Weibull distribution and the development in car density is modelled by a Gompertz function. Parameters of the distribution and function are calibrated by using historical data, mainly from Eurostat. The paper presents a baseline projection of the number of ELVs for the EU25.

Keywords: end-of-life vehicles; ELVs; passenger cars; car density; projection; GDP; European Union; EU; Weibull distribution; Gompertz function; ELV modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJATM.2007.017065

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2007 Vol.7 No.4, pp.343 - 355

Available online: 06 Feb 2008 *

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