Title: Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios

Authors: M.R. Nava, Tugrul U. Daim

Addresses: Department of Engineering and Technology Management, Maseeh College of Engineering and Computer Science, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland OR 97207, USA. ' Department of Engineering and Technology Management, Maseeh College of Engineering and Computer Science, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland OR 97207, USA

Abstract: This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process; AHP; scenario planning; fuel alternatives; alternative propulsion; forecasting; commercialisation ; future motor fuels; automotive technology; automobile industry.

DOI: 10.1504/IJATM.2007.017062

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2007 Vol.7 No.4, pp.289 - 313

Available online: 06 Feb 2008 *

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