Title: An approach to robust decision making under severe uncertainty in life cycle design

Authors: Scott J. Duncan, Bert Bras, Christiaan J.J. Paredis

Addresses: Systems Realization Laboratory, G.W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 813 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332-0405, USA. ' Systems Realization Laboratory, G.W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 813 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332-0405, USA. ' Systems Realization Laboratory, G.W. Woodruff School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 813 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332-0405, USA

Abstract: Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT), an approach to robust decision making under severe uncertainty, is newly considered in the context of environmental performance affected by life cycle uncertainty. An IGDT decision strategy favours the design(s) that can endure the most estimation error while still guaranteeing no worse than some |good enough| critical level of performance. In this paper, a simple automotive oil filter design selection example with severe uncertainty is formulated and solved using an IGDT approach. Implications of IGDT to life cycle engineering design problems are discussed, as are potential limitations that could be encountered when solving more complex problems.

Keywords: information gap decision theory; IGDT; uncertainty; decision making; robustness; life cycle design; environmental performance; automotive oil filters; oil filter design; automobile industry; sustainable design.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSDES.2008.017056

International Journal of Sustainable Design, 2008 Vol.1 No.1, pp.45 - 59

Available online: 06 Feb 2008 *

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