Title: Predicting target selection by terrorists: a network analysis of the 2005 London underground attacks
Authors: Ferenc Jordan
Addresses: Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Study, Szentharomsag u. 2, H-1014, Budapest, Hungary
Abstract: A vulnerability analysis of possible use in security studies is presented. The analysis of the London underground network suggests that the stations bombed on 7 July, 2005 may not have been chosen randomly. From the viewpoint of effectively disturbing the transport system, nearly the best choice was made out of roughly 3 million possible combinations for attacking three stations. By comparing the underground networks of London, Tokyo and Budapest, we discuss the vulnerability of their underground networks. It seems to be plausible that such calculations can be made by softwares used widely in social network analysis. The predictive power of network analysis can be helpful in setting priorities in defence.
Keywords: network analysis; betweenness centrality; London; underground networks; terrorism; target prediction; target selection; terrorist threat; terrorist targets; critical infrastructures; security; Tokyo; Budapest; vulnerability; social network analysis; defence priorities; emergency management; terrorist attacks.
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2008 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.206 - 214
Published online: 05 Dec 2007 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article