Title: Security assessment in complex networks exposed to terrorist hazard: a simulation approach

Authors: Enrico Zio, Claudio M. Rocco S.

Addresses: Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/3 – 20133 Milano, Italy. ' Universidad Central de Venezuela, Apartado Postal 47937, Caracas 1041A, Venezuela

Abstract: This paper presents a methodological approach combining Cellular Automata (CA) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for computing the security characteristics of a system exposed to terrorist attacks, such as the injection of poison in the water distribution system of a populated area. The physical system can be modelled as a network (graph) of nodes interconnected by links. CA are employed to describe the dynamics of spread of the hazard through the network, considering a simple continuity framework. The MC method allows simulating the stochastics of the hazard propagation between the nodes of the network and its effect.

Keywords: cellular automata; CA; Monte Carlo simulation; security assessment; complex networks; critical infrastructures; terrorist threat; terrorist attacks; poison; water distribution systems; hazard propagation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2008.016093

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2008 Vol.4 No.1/2, pp.80 - 95

Published online: 05 Dec 2007 *

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