Title: Dealing with resilience in supply chain: an integrated Markov chain modelling approach

Authors: Suchera Putthakosa; Huynh Trung Luong

Addresses: Department of Industrial Systems Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand ' Department of Industrial Systems Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand

Abstract: Recently, supply chain disruptions have occurred all over the world. An evident example is the global pandemic, which is COVID-19. Such a pandemic exposes vulnerable points in the supply chain networks and causes prolonged recovery periods. Therefore, developing resilience in the supply chain is essential to deal with disruptions. This study derives a continuous-time Markov chain model to help analyse the sustainability, vulnerability, and recoverability of a supplier who might experience disruptive events. The forward Kolmogorov's equations are employed to help determine the transition probabilities of all system states. Also, the limiting probabilities of the states are determined to quantify the proportion of time that the system will be in the normal, absorbing, and disrupted states in the long run. This approach is a new way of examining sustainability, vulnerability, and recoverability, which are the key components of the supply chain's resilience.

Keywords: supply chain resilience; continuous Markov chain model; supply chain disruption; network behaviour; supply chain management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLSM.2026.152607

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2026 Vol.53 No.3, pp.285 - 330

Received: 23 Aug 2023
Accepted: 28 Aug 2023
Published online: 31 Mar 2026 *

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