Title: The club convergence in green economy: evidence from 120 countries during 2010-2020

Authors: Xiaohang Ren; Qian Lu; Yi Jin

Addresses: School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China; Faculty of Finance, City University of Macau, 999078, Macau, China ' School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China ' School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, 999078, Macau, China

Abstract: The neoclassical theory posits that an economic system often presents multiple stable equilibria in response to short-term shocks, rather than a sole equilibrium. Contrary to the conventional β-convergence approach that emphasises the convergence of equilibrium across all nations, the club convergence methodology uncovers the diverse trajectories of green economic growth among different countries. Utilising global green economic growth data from 2010 to 2020, this paper distinguishes four types of 'club convergence' and delves into the potential factors shaping the emergence of these clubs. The results indicate that energy vulnerability, the human development index, and GDP per capita enhance a country's probability of joining high green economic growth clubs, whereas per capita carbon emissions, the unemployment rate, and the urbanisation rate diminish the likelihood of belonging to these high-growth clubs. Additionally, this paper presents substantial evidence on how spatial spillover effects and temporal effects collaboratively impact the formation of various clubs. Through these analyses, this paper furnishes novel theoretical perspectives on the geographical distribution of green economies and their determinants, and advocates for the formulation of differentiated green economy policies in accordance with each country's economic structure and green development level.

Keywords: green economy; club convergence; energy vulnerability; spatial spillovers.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGE.2026.151905

International Journal of Green Economics, 2026 Vol.20 No.1, pp.44 - 71

Received: 22 Feb 2025
Accepted: 05 Jun 2025
Published online: 25 Feb 2026 *

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