Title: Numerical analysis of propagation behaviour for high area-to-mass ratio objects in near-geostationary earth orbit

Authors: Ahmed Magdy Abdelaziz; Yehia Abdel-Aziz; Igor Molotov; Shafeeq Kaheal Tealib

Addresses: Solar and Space Research Department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, 11421, Cairo, Egypt ' Solar and Space Research Department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, 11421, Cairo, Egypt ' Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 125047, Russia ' Solar and Space Research Department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, 11421, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract: Understanding the dynamics of high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects in near-geostationary earth orbit (GEO) is essential for space situational awareness (SSA). This study develops a numerical propagator to model the long-term behaviour of HAMR objects, incorporating solar radiation pressure, Earth's oblateness, and third-body gravitational effects. The propagator's results were compared with Vimpel catalog ephemeris data, focusing on the orbital evolution of debris with varying area-to-mass ratios. The analysis revealed strong agreement between the propagator and ephemeris data, though some discrepancies regarding eccentricity and semi-major axis were identified. Findings show that HAMR debris in GEO can persist for decades, maintaining a mean motion near GEO while exhibiting significant variations in orbital parameters. These results enhance understanding of HAMR dynamics, offering insights for improving SSA and developing debris mitigation strategies.

Keywords: space debris; numerical propagator; orbital dynamics; space situational awareness; SSA; perturbations; ephemeris data.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPACESE.2025.151015

International Journal of Space Science and Engineering, 2025 Vol.7 No.3, pp.273 - 288

Received: 22 Jan 2025
Accepted: 18 Feb 2025
Published online: 09 Jan 2026 *

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