Title: The response of the logistics and supply chain industries to two different crises - a Google trends econometric approach

Authors: Theodoros Daglis

Addresses: School of Applied Mathematics and Physics, National Technical University of Athens, Zografos, Athens, Greece; Department of Management Science and Technology, School of Economics and Business, University of Patras, Koukouli, Patras, Greece

Abstract: In this paper, we test whether Google searches provide useful forecasting ability on some of the biggest logistics and supply chain companies' stocks, during two crises of different origins, namely, the crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 crisis. We also examine the spillover effects among these stocks for both periods. Additionally, we compare the aforementioned results regarding the two crises. Based on our findings, the examined keywords provide useful information for the forecasting of logistics and supply chain companies' stocks for both crises. Especially for the crisis of COVID-19, Google trends contribute to the forecasting of these stocks' performance, even in some cases that the pandemic data did not provide. Finally, there are spillover effects for both crises, but for the COVID-19 era, spillover effects are less in multitude than those during the crisis of 2008.

Keywords: COVID-19; crisis; Google trends; stringency lockdown index; logistics; supply chain.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLSM.2025.144434

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2025 Vol.50 No.2, pp.135 - 162

Received: 25 Nov 2021
Accepted: 27 Jun 2022
Published online: 13 Feb 2025 *

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