Title: The chronicle of Greek economy development and prospects since its entry in EMU

Authors: Charalampos Basdekis; Ioannis Katsampoxakis; Dimitrios Moutsios

Addresses: University of Athens, Athens, Greece ' Department of Statistics and Actuarial – Financial Mathematics, University of the Aegean, Samos, Greece ' Mathematical Modelling in Contemporary Technologies and Finance, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to assess the influence of specific macro and market features on the Greek economic crisis and to predict the future output of the Greek economy. Time series data analysis is applied for the period 2002-2021 using a general linear model and a predictive model for examining the future estimated output of the Greek economy, extending till 2025. We estimate four models in order to end up to the optimal model, providing us with the more accurate results. According to the optimal model, there is a strong statistical significance of capital markets, employment and dummy variable, which contribute to the differentiation of the two sub-periods. As far as the forecast is concerned, GDP's evolution shows growth perspectives, current account deficit seems to be reduced, improving Greek competitiveness, investments appear to increase, pushing Greek economy to develop and employment is estimated to move upwards.

Keywords: economic growth; economic crisis; financial crisis; investments; current account; public debt; bond yields; deficit; employment; capital markets.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFERM.2024.142828

International Journal of Financial Engineering and Risk Management, 2024 Vol.3 No.4, pp.297 - 330

Received: 17 Apr 2022
Accepted: 02 Oct 2022
Published online: 28 Nov 2024 *

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