Title: A framework for evaluating risk to the transportation network from terrorism and security policies

Authors: Pamela M. Murray-Tuite

Addresses: Virginia Tech, 7054 Haycock Rd., Falls Church, VA 22043, USA

Abstract: Examining the risk imposed on the transportation network by both security policies and terrorist activity is critical to understanding higher-level risks, such as those related to national security and the economy. This paper presents a framework for evaluating risk to the road transportation network from direct targeting by terrorists, collateral damage, and pre-attack and post-attack security policies. Risk is measured in terms of capacity losses between an origin and a destination. An event tree determines the probabilities that the network|s links are in particular states. The maximum flow between the OD pair, subtracted from the maximum flow of the baseline network, determines the consequences, or impact. Using this framework, decision-makers can better evaluate the costs of both terrorist activities and security measures, including the risk of reacting to false intelligence.

Keywords: transportation; transport networks; risk assessment; terrorism; security policy; event tree; capacity reliability; collateral damage; terrorist activities; security measures; false intelligence; critical infrastructures.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2007.014117

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2007 Vol.3 No.3/4, pp.389 - 407

Published online: 21 Jun 2007 *

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