Title: Fiscal austerity as a driver of populism in the European Union

Authors: Volodymyr Samsonov

Addresses: Graduate School, WiSo-Fakultät (Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences), Universität Hamburg (University of Hamburg), Hamburg, Germany

Abstract: This research investigates the role of austerity in the rise of right- and left-wing populism in European politics. The study examines macro-hypotheses to determine whether austerity measures contribute to increased populism, and meso-hypotheses that evaluate populism risks of Keynesian and neoclassical austerity strategies. Statistical analysis is conducted to test these hypotheses. The overall findings suggest that there are no significant links between austerity and populism when differences between European states are disregarded. However, a more detailed analysis reveals that in South European states austerity plays a significant role in populist crises. The adverse political effects of austerity in these states stem from a mismatch between voters' and policymakers' perspectives on austerity strategies. In EU states with social-democratic, market-based, and continental European capitalism, austerity is not a principal factor in increasing populism. The findings of this study can assist policymakers in finding politically viable models of austerity packages in the EU.

Keywords: fiscal austerity; fiscal policies; budget deficit; debt crises; Keynesian theories; neoclassical theories; European politics; political stability; populism.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPP.2024.138372

International Journal of Public Policy, 2024 Vol.17 No.3, pp.218 - 242

Received: 08 Aug 2023
Accepted: 03 Oct 2023

Published online: 01 May 2024 *

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