Title: Place matters - the spatial diffusion of contagious diseases

Authors: Steffen Fleßa

Addresses: Department of Healthcare Management, University of Greifswald, Friedrich-Loeffler-Straße 70, 17487 Greifswald, Germany

Abstract: The diffusion of contagious diseases follows a spatial pattern highly relevant for the design of intervention programs. This paper analyses the waves of a generic contagious disease in a pattern region. We develop a batch model based on a system dynamics model where the likelihood of an infection depends on distance from another person. The basic simulation shows a clear pattern of a wave sweeping over the region. Starting in one cell, the epidemic strongly depends on the proximity to the place of origin. The speed and intensiveness of the wave depends on the mobility, infectivity and contact rate, but also on the population pattern. Health policymakers have to install early detection and sentinel systems to stop an outbreak before it diffuses spatially. If it is possible to flatten the curve and prolong the diffusion process, barriers of vaccinated could be built up. This will also require controlling national and cross-border transport.

Keywords: contact rate; contagious disease; COVID-19; health systems research; infectivity; measles; mobility; place; quantitative techniques; simulation; spatial diffusion; system dynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBSR.2023.134464

International Journal of Business and Systems Research, 2023 Vol.17 No.6, pp.677 - 702

Received: 10 Jun 2021
Accepted: 12 Nov 2021

Published online: 24 Oct 2023 *

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