Title: Climate change, agricultural output and inflation in India: autoregressive distributed lag bounds test

Authors: Sachita Yadav

Addresses: Arun Jaitley National Institute of Financial Management, An Autonomous Institution of Ministry of Finance, Government of India, Sector-48 Pa, Faridabad, Haryana 121001, India

Abstract: This paper is an attempt to analyse the impact of climate change (average annual rain and average maximum and average minimum temperature) on the crop yield (wheat yield and rice yield) and crop inflation (wheat inflation and rice inflation) in India during 2000-2018 with the help of ARDL bounds test. The empirical results showed that there is a significant short run relationship exists between wheat yield and average annual rain and average maximum temperature. Rice yield is also having a significant short run relationship with average annual rain. But it did not find any long run relationship between climate change and crop yield.

Keywords: climate change; crop yield; crop inflation; ARDL bonds test; India.

DOI: 10.1504/IER.2023.132555

Interdisciplinary Environmental Review, 2023 Vol.23 No.1, pp.39 - 51

Received: 22 Jun 2022
Accepted: 19 Oct 2022
Published online: 28 Jul 2023 *

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