Title: The prediction of carbon emissions from construction land in central Yunnan urban agglomeration area based on multiple linear regression model

Authors: Lede Niu; Jingzhi Lin; Lifang Zhou; Anlin Li; Yan Zhou

Addresses: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China ' Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China ' Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China ' Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China ' Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

Abstract: In order to clarify the quantitative relationship between construction land changes and carbon emissions, a prediction method for carbon emissions from construction land in central Yunnan urban agglomeration area based on multiple linear regression model was proposed. Taking the central Yunnan urban agglomeration area as the study area, based on the data of construction land from 2011 to 2020, the carbon emission of construction land was predicted by using the multiple linear regression model. There is a positive correlation between the carbon emissions of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration area and the level of construction land use. From 2011 to 2020, average annual growth rate of construction land area was 8.56%, and the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions was 5.75%. The annual growth rate of carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030 is 0.97%, indicating that the government's carbon emission control measures have achieved good results.

Keywords: multiple linear regression model; STIRPAT model; central Yunnan urban agglomeration area; construction land; carbon emission prediction.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2023.132017

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2023 Vol.45 No.4/5, pp.349 - 365

Received: 22 Apr 2022
Accepted: 27 Jul 2022
Published online: 06 Jul 2023 *

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