Title: Impact of COVID-19 on forecasting and aggregate production planning: a case study

Authors: Katelyn Thompson; Johnathan Munn; Hari K. Rajagopalan

Addresses: School of Business, Francis Marion University, Florence SC, 29506, USA ' School of Business, Francis Marion University, Florence SC, 29506, USA ' School of Business, Francis Marion University, Florence SC, 29506, USA

Abstract: Forecasting and aggregate production planning (APP) are interrelated. Forecasting is used to estimate demand. Aggregate production planning uses the demand forecast to balance capacity requirements and production quantities for medium-term planning horizons. These plans provide input for further planning steps. In 2020, COVID-19 disrupted the forecast and required a re-evaluation of the production plans for the rest of the year. This paper presents a case study investigating the impact of COVID-19 on the Aggregate Production Plan for Sonoco's Rigid Paper and Closures Division plant in the southern United States. The forecast for 2020 was developed using demand data from 2014-2019. The aggregate production plan was developed using linear programming formulation. Multiple scenarios were constructed with managerial implications on decisions made for 2020.

Keywords: time series forecasting; aggregate production planning; APP; decision support systems.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPMB.2023.130960

International Journal of Process Management and Benchmarking, 2023 Vol.14 No.2, pp.155 - 175

Received: 09 Jun 2021
Accepted: 23 Aug 2021
Published online: 14 May 2023 *

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