Title: Predictive model to determine the growth of mobile money transactions in Zambia using data mining techniques

Authors: Richard Mwila; Douglas Kunda

Addresses: School of Science Engineering and Technology, Mulungushi University, Kabwe, Central Province, Zambia ' School of Science Engineering and Technology, Mulungushi University, Kabwe, Central Province, Zambia

Abstract: Mobile money has been known to be a successful venture around the world especially so, for African countries due to the many limitations that traditional banks have like operations, expensive transaction costs and cumbersome process to open account to mention but a few. The presence of mobile money has not only allowed the unbanked population to have accounts but has also alleviated poverty for many rural communities. Zambia has seen an increase of mobile money accounts and COVID-19 has exacerbated this increase. Therefore, this paper sought to determine data mining algorithm best predicts mobile money transaction growth. This paper was quantitative in nature and used aggregated monthly mobile money data (from Zambian mobile network operators) from 2013 to 2020 as its sample which was collected from Bank of Zambia and Zambia Information Communications and Technology Authority. The paper further used WEKA data mining tool for data analysis following the Cross-Industrial Standard Process for data mining guidelines. The performance from best to least is K-nearest neighbour, random forest, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron and linear regression. The predictions from data mining techniques can be deployed to predict growth of mobile money and hence be used in financial inclusion policy formulation and other strategies that can further improve service delivery by mobile network operators.

Keywords: linear regression; support vector machine; random forest; mobile money transactions; KNN; K-nearest neighbour; multilayer perceptron.

DOI: 10.1504/IJDMB.2022.130330

International Journal of Data Mining and Bioinformatics, 2022 Vol.27 No.1/2/3, pp.139 - 170

Received: 22 Aug 2022
Accepted: 22 Dec 2022
Published online: 17 Apr 2023 *

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