Title: The distortion of beliefs in the face of uncertainty

Authors: Lennart Sjoberg

Addresses: Department of Psychology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway

Abstract: Judgements and beliefs often are distorted. They are affected by underlying values and reflect strong tendencies toward wishful thinking. In action, biased thinking may or may not be detrimental, and there is a very delicate balance to keep between the need to motivate oneself for forceful action, and to keep a realistic view of the possibilities of success. People encounter problems, calling for thought and the formation of constructs, only rather rarely, but when they do they tend to be in an unpleasant emotional state. Uncertainty is one such state, in which one encounters difficult problems and expects little success.

Keywords: uncertainty; beliefs; biases; heuristics; judgement; decision making.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMDM.2007.012148

International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2007 Vol.8 No.1, pp.1 - 29

Published online: 24 Jan 2007 *

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