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Title: Temperature range across Nigeria to the end of 21st century: prospects for photovoltaics based on CMIP5 and CORDEX perspectives

Authors: Ugochukwu K. Okoro; Chizomam I. Usoh; Cecily O. Nwokocha; Wen Chen

Addresses: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Center for Monsoon System Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Atmospheric Physics Group, Department of Physics, Imo State University, P.M.B. 2000 Owerri, Nigeria ' Department of Physics, Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education, P.M.B. 1033 Owerri, Nigeria ' Department of Physics, Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education, P.M.B. 1033 Owerri, Nigeria ' Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Center for Monsoon System Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Abstract: Temperature range (TR) data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) has been validated by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency observations. The horizontal solar radiation (Gh) is estimated from the TR using the Annandale method and validated by the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, which presents it as a proxy to Gh in such data-sparse area. CMIP5 and CORDEX-Africa estimated Gh and Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation, respectively, are compared with the estimated Gh. The models' historical outputs for the estimated Gh show a significant correlation (99.9% confidence level from the t-test) with the CRU proxy. The models' estimated Gh projections have two epochs, from 2006 to 2038 and from 2039 to 2089. Compared to the historical, the first epoch has all models projecting a Gh decrease in RCP 4.5 (CCCMa = −0.28%, DMI = −0.31%, KNMI = −0.43%), whereas, CCCMa (0.47%) and DMI (0.06%) projects increment in the RCP 8.5. In contrast, the second epoch reveals a greater projected decrease in the RCP 4.5 from CCCMa (−0.45%) and KNMI (−1.81%), whereas, a greater projected increment from CCCMa (1.40%) and DMI (0.35%) in the RCP 8.5. Our findings are imperative in PV planning, siting and management across Nigeria.

Keywords: Nigeria; temperature range; solar radiation; CMIP5; CORDEX-Africa.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2022.10042741

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2022 Vol.44 No.1, pp.1 - 27

Received: 20 Jul 2019
Accepted: 30 Jul 2020

Published online: 08 Feb 2022 *

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