Title: Neural network and genetic programming for modelling coastal algal blooms

Authors: Nitin Muttil, Kwok-Wing Chau

Addresses: Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong. ' Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong

Abstract: In the recent past, machine learning (ML) techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANN) have been increasingly used to model algal bloom dynamics. In the present paper, along with ANN, we select genetic programming (GP) for modelling and prediction of algal blooms in Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong. The study of the weights of the trained ANN and also the GP-evolved equations shows that they correctly identify the ecologically significant variables. Analysis of various ANN and GP scenarios indicates that good predictions of long-term trends in algal biomass can be obtained using only chlorophyll-a as input. The results indicate that the use of biweekly data can simulate long-term trends of algal biomass reasonably well, but it is not ideally suited to give short-term algal bloom predictions.

Keywords: harmful algal blooms; machine learning techniques; artificial neural networks; genetic programming; water quality modelling; Hong Kong; algal biomass; environmental pollution; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2006.011208

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2006 Vol.28 No.3/4, pp.223 - 238

Published online: 06 Nov 2006 *

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