Title: Strategic decision making to maximise the efficiency of water usage in steel manufacturing process via AHP and BBN: a case study

Authors: José Cristiano Pereira; Geane Cristina Fayer

Addresses: Universidade Católica de Petrópolis-UCP, Rua Benjamin Constant, 213-Centro Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, 25620, Brazil ' Universidade Católica de Petrópolis-UCP, Rua Benjamin Constant, 213-Centro Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, 25620, Brazil

Abstract: This study proposes a method for strategic decision making, considering the identification and prioritisation of the potential risks that could stop production in the steel production processes in a water crisis scenario. This method combines AHP and BBN to assess risks arising from the water crisis scenario in steel manufacturing industries. As a methodological approach experts and professionals from a group of steel manufacturing companies were interviewed do identify risk factors considering a water crisis scenario and the risk probabilities were elicited accordingly. No previous work dealing with risk analysis to prioritise risks arising from the water crisis scenario in steel manufacturing processes could be found. As a result of this study, a global risk matrix is proposed. The study provides a method to be used by professionals, engineers and decision makers in the identification of risk factors that could impact the operation of steel manufacturing companies.

Keywords: risk analysis; water shortage; analytic hierarchy process; AHP; Bayesian belief network; BBN; steel industry.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIDS.2020.110446

International Journal of Information and Decision Sciences, 2020 Vol.12 No.4, pp.328 - 347

Received: 14 Jan 2019
Accepted: 20 Mar 2019
Published online: 20 Oct 2020 *

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