Title: Long-term forecasting for Sustainable Development: air travel demand for 2050

Authors: Scott W. Cunningham, Alexander R.C. De Haan

Addresses: Faculty Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, Delft 2628 BX, The Netherlands. ' Faculty Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, Delft 2628 BX, The Netherlands

Abstract: Before implementing policy measures that may contribute to a sustainable development, one has to determine in one or other way in advance if these measures will have their intended effects. As sustainable development necessitates long-term perspectives, a robust vision of possible future states of the world is vital. This paper discusses two different approaches to gain insights into possible future states of the system of interest. One is the classical scenario approach, and the other is the empirical modelling approach. This paper considers possible future air travel demand as a case study, as in that system long-term visions of up to 50 years are necessary. This paper discusses a need for more sustainable development in the aviation sector and argues that changes in that system require long horizons for action. It explains the need for developing ideas about the possible future air travel demand for the period up to 2050. This paper presents a brief review of the literature on scenarios and exploratory modelling. It discusses both the scenario and empirical modelling approach to come up with plausible future states of the system and gives a convergent forecast of future growth in the year 2050.

Keywords: forecasting; aviation; air travel; demand; sustainable development; networks; scenarios; modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJESD.2006.010899

International Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2006 Vol.5 No.3, pp.297 - 314

Available online: 14 Sep 2006 *

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