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Title: The evaluation of renewable energy predictive modelling in energy dependency reduction: a system dynamics approach

Authors: Emad Rabiei Hosseinabad; Reinaldo J. Moraga

Addresses: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, College of Engineering and Engineering Technology, Northern Illinois University, 095 Garden Road, USA ' Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, College of Engineering and Engineering Technology, Northern Illinois University, 095 Garden Road, USA

Abstract: Supplying energy has become one of the biggest concerns of developed countries due to the growing energy needs in the last decades. Utilising available renewable energy resources has been characterised as a reliable indicator, to reduce energy dependency in countries as well as securing the supplying of energy-based needs in the future. In this paper, a system dynamics approach has been utilised to illustrate the interrelationships between electricity/energy consumption, renewable energy resources as promotion plans, and energy dependency on imported resources. In order to illustrate benefits of renewable energy utilisation on reducing energy dependency, three different scenarios were developed and applied to the state of Illinois in the US to analyse the decrease in imported energy resources from external sources. The results of a computer simulation indicated that about 17 billion dollars can be saved by 2025 by reducing electricity/energy imports by implementing complete renewable energy action plans.

Keywords: renewable energy policy; system dynamics modelling; energy dependency; energy demand forecasting; predictive modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJAMS.2020.105295

International Journal of Applied Management Science, 2020 Vol.12 No.1, pp.1 - 22

Received: 19 Sep 2018
Accepted: 30 Nov 2018

Published online: 11 Feb 2020 *

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