Title: Cyclical behaviour of the Swiss real estate market

Authors: Thomas Ankenbrand; Fabian Kostadinov; Faten Ben Bouheni; Mondher Bellalah

Addresses: Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts, Grafenauweg 10, Postfach 7344, CH-6302 Zug, Switzerland ' AVACO AG, Hopfenstrasse 20, CH-8045 Zürich, Switzerland ' ISC Paris Business School, 22 Bd du Fort de Vaux 75017, Paris, France ' ISC Paris Business School and University of Cergy-Pontoise, 33 Boulevard du Port Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, Cedex 95011, France

Abstract: The influence of the last real estate crisis in Switzerland, in the '90s, was severe. Here, we seek to analyse the Swiss real estate market using agent-based modelling (ABM), from December 1986 to September 2014. Our model combines explicit knowledge of behavioural patterns of the agents, with implicit knowledge in the form of time series analysis. Findings are in line with other markets, indicating that the Swiss real estate market is pro-cyclical. If the trend of historically long-term increasing prices on the Swiss real estate market stops, we would expect a hard landing. Then, if regulation reduces the increasing real estate prices, this would lead to a drop in long-term prices.

Keywords: Swiss real estate market; agent-based modelling; economic cycle.

DOI: 10.1504/IJESB.2020.104235

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, 2020 Vol.39 No.1/2, pp.71 - 99

Received: 30 Nov 2017
Accepted: 27 Dec 2017
Published online: 23 Dec 2019 *

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