Title: Modelling the air quality for assessing the health benefits of urban regeneration: a case of Tallinn city Centre, Estonia

Authors: Marko Kaasik; Mihkel Pindus; Tanel Tamm; Hans Orru

Addresses: Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia ' Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia ' Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia ' Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umea, Sweden

Abstract: Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter were modelled to assess the health benefits of an urban regeneration scenario for the central part of Tallinn, where the traffic on two of the main streets will be reduced to create a more friendly space for active commuters. To model the air quality the stationary Gaussian plume model AEROPOL was used with a 25 m grid resolution. The model was validated against a stationary air quality monitoring station in the domain. The health benefits of the scenarios were calculated based on the changes in air pollution exposures for residents and daily visitors, using methods of health impact assessment. This research predicts that each year the reduction of exhaust (indicated by NO2) and road dust (indicated by PM10) exposure in the city centre would prevent up to 0.29 premature deaths (−27%) among the general population, 0.57 deaths (−3.6%) among daily visitors, 0.18 deaths (−21.2%) among pedestrians, and 0.03 deaths (−24.7%) among people public transport users.

Keywords: nitrogen dioxide; PM10; particulate matter; Gaussian dispersion model; urban; health impact assessment; mortality; premature death; Estonia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2019.101844

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2019 Vol.65 No.1/2/3, pp.246 - 265

Received: 21 Jan 2018
Accepted: 07 Jan 2019

Published online: 22 Aug 2019 *

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