Title: An advanced platform for power system security assessment accounting for forecast uncertainties
Authors: Emanuele Ciapessoni; Diego Cirio; Andrea Pitto; Nicolas Omont; Leonel M. Carvalho; Maria Helena Vasconcelos
Addresses: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' RTE – Réseau de Transport d'Electricité, France ' Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias 4200-465 Porto, Portugal ' Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
Abstract: Accounting for the increasing uncertainties related to forecast of renewables is becoming an essential requirement while assessing the security of future power system scenarios. Project iTesla in the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) of the European Union (EU) tackles these needs and reaches several major objectives, including the development of a security platform architecture. In particular, the platform implements a stochastic dependence model to simulate a reasonable cloud of plausible 'future' states - due to renewable forecast - around the expected state, and evaluates the security on relevant states after sampling the cloud of uncertainty. The paper focuses on the proposed model for the uncertainty and its exploitation in power system security assessment process and it reports the relevant validation results.
Keywords: Nataf transformation; pair copula decomposition; power systems; principal component analysis; renewables; security assessment; uncertainties.
International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2019 Vol.18 No.3, pp.257 - 281
Available online: 03 Apr 2019 *Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article