Title: An advanced platform for power system security assessment accounting for forecast uncertainties

Authors: Emanuele Ciapessoni; Diego Cirio; Andrea Pitto; Nicolas Omont; Leonel M. Carvalho; Maria Helena Vasconcelos

Addresses: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Italy ' RTE – Réseau de Transport d'Electricité, France ' Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias 4200-465 Porto, Portugal ' Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias 4200-465 Porto, Portugal

Abstract: Accounting for the increasing uncertainties related to forecast of renewables is becoming an essential requirement while assessing the security of future power system scenarios. Project iTesla in the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) of the European Union (EU) tackles these needs and reaches several major objectives, including the development of a security platform architecture. In particular, the platform implements a stochastic dependence model to simulate a reasonable cloud of plausible 'future' states - due to renewable forecast - around the expected state, and evaluates the security on relevant states after sampling the cloud of uncertainty. The paper focuses on the proposed model for the uncertainty and its exploitation in power system security assessment process and it reports the relevant validation results.

Keywords: Nataf transformation; pair copula decomposition; power systems; principal component analysis; renewables; security assessment; uncertainties.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMDM.2019.100508

International Journal of Management and Decision Making, 2019 Vol.18 No.3, pp.257 - 281

Received: 30 Jun 2017
Accepted: 16 May 2018
Published online: 29 Jun 2019 *

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