Title: Modelling and forecasting recurrent recovery events on consumer loans

Authors: Richard Chamboko; Jorge M.V. Bravo

Addresses: NOVA IMS Information Management School, New University of Lisbon, Portugal ' NOVA IMS Information Management School, New University of Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract: Even though multiple failure-time data are ubiquitous in finance and economics especially in the credit risk domain, it is unfortunate that naive statistical techniques which ignore the subsequent events are commonly used to analyse such data. Applying standard statistical methods without addressing the recurrence of the events produces biased and inefficient estimates, thus offering erroneous predictions. We explore various ways of modelling and forecasting recurrent delinquency and recovery events on consumer loans. Using consumer loans data from a severely distressed economic environment, we illustrate and empirically compare extended Cox models for ordered recurrent recovery events. We highlight that accounting for multiple events proffers detailed information, thus providing a nuanced understanding of the recovery prognosis of delinquents. For ordered indistinguishable recurrent recovery events, we recommend using the Andersen and Gill (1982) model since it fits the assumptions and performs well on predicting recovery.

Keywords: variance-corrected models; frailty models; multi-state models; MSM; Cox model; recurrent events; delinquency; recovery; consumer loans; credit risk.

DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2019.100440

International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2019 Vol.12 No.3, pp.271 - 287

Received: 24 Sep 2018
Accepted: 25 Nov 2018

Published online: 28 Jun 2019 *

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