Title: Navigating the global value chain shift to electric vehicles: lessons from the Thailand and South African automotive industries

Authors: Justin Barnes; Anthony Black; Mbongeni Ndlovu; Kriengkrai Techakanont

Addresses: Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria, South Africa ' School of Economics, University of Cape Town, South Africa ' Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria, South Africa ' Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand

Abstract: Second tier automotive producer countries such as South Africa and Thailand are confronting major disruptions in the global configuration of the automotive global value chain, namely the growing ascendance of China and the accelerating shift to electric vehicles. The Thailand automotive industry demonstrates sustained competitive advantage relative to the South African automotive industry. This advantage arises from access to a larger domestic and regional market, greater economies of scale, a lower cost operating environment, and more impactful industrial policies. These ensure that Thailand has a more export competitive automotive industry. Consequently, Thailand appears to be more successfully navigating the shift to electric mobility. The Thai Government has introduced EV purchasing incentives and has attracted Chinese EV investments. South Africa has done neither. While both economies remain vulnerable to the global EV shift, Thailand appears better positioned to navigate the EV transition than South Africa.

Keywords: Thailand; South Africa; China; automotive; global value chain; GVC; competitiveness; electric vehicles; industrial policy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJATM.2026.155999

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2026 Vol.26 No.3, pp.316 - 330

Received: 31 Dec 2025
Accepted: 17 Mar 2026
Published online: 28 Aug 2026 *

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