Title: Decoding investor behaviour in emerging markets: a mediation-moderation perspective on Ethiopia's Securities Exchange

Authors: P.C.K. Rao; Irfan Ahmed Sheikh; Bilal Ahmad Pandow; Javeed Ahmad Bhat

Addresses: DBA Programs of Golden Gate University, San Francisco, USA; Institute of Advanced Research in Management Sciences, Jyotirmay Group of Institutions, Delhi (NCT), India ' Department of Public Financial Management, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Ethiopia ' School of Business and Logistics, Bahrain Polytechnic, Kingdom of Bahrain; INTI University, Malaysia ' Amity Institute of Social Sciences, Amity University Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract: The study investigates the determinants of potential investors' intentions to adopt the newly established Ethiopian Securities Exchange Market (ESEM) by extending the theory of planned behaviour with financial literacy and ESEM-specific knowledge. It examines how these factors shape attitudes, which mediate their effects on behavioural intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control exert direct and conditional influences. Data were collected from 323 potential retail investors across Ethiopia's major financial centres using a structured survey and purposive - stratified sampling. Using PLS-SEM with bootstrapping, the results reveal that financial literacy and ESEM knowledge significantly enhance favourable attitudes, which in turn influence intention. Perceived behavioural control shows a strong direct effect, whereas subjective norms are more influential among individuals with higher literacy. The model explains a meaningful proportion of variance in behavioural outcomes, highlighting the importance of investor education, accessible information, and policies that strengthen perceived control to promote ESEM participation.

Keywords: theory of planned behaviour; TPB; financial literacy; investment intention; Ethiopian Securities Exchange Market; PLS-SEM; emerging capital markets; Ethiopia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2026.155933

International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, 2026 Vol.10 No.3, pp.245 - 268

Received: 01 Dec 2025
Accepted: 30 Apr 2026
Published online: 26 Aug 2026 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article