Title: Digital technologies: maturity analysis and future trend predictions

Authors: Qingfeng Li; Hui Xiang; Xiao Liao; Lifeng Xing; Yueming Ji; Keer Ning; Hanwen Gu; Zaibin Jiao

Addresses: State Grid Information and Telecommunication Industry Group Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102211, China ' State Grid Information and Telecommunication Industry Group Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102211, China ' State Grid Information and Telecommunication Industry Group Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102211, China ' School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China ' School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China ' School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China ' School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China ' School of Electrical Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China

Abstract: Aiming at the current problem of unclear development path of grid digitalisation technology, we propose the development stage assessment and maturity prediction method of grid digitalisation technology to explore its development trend. First, we build a technology maturity assessment model based on the technology maturity curve, categorising it into three main areas: smart sensors, Internet of Things (IoT) technology, and AI, using literature research to establish a maturity prediction database. We then analyse and predict the future stages and overall development trends of grid digitisation, offering maturity predictions influenced by both technological and thermal factors. Finally, the model's accuracy is validated through designed goodness-of-fit indices and cross-validation. The findings indicate that the volume of literature and patents can reflect technological trends, with China's digital grid technology research peaking around 2030-2040 and stabilising by 2060, aligning with China's carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords: smart grid digital transformation; technology maturity curve; goodness-of-fit metrics; maturity prediction; grid digitalisation; Internet of Things; artificial intelligence; smart sensors; DC power distribution; patent analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMS.2025.155744

International Journal of Mechatronics and Manufacturing Systems, 2025 Vol.18 No.4, pp.315 - 339

Received: 24 Nov 2024
Accepted: 30 Jun 2025
Published online: 12 Aug 2026 *

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