Title: Economic and financial feasibility analysis combined with Monte Carlo simulation for the installation of a bagasse dryer in the juice industry

Authors: Alan Lorenz; Aline Pontes Hübner; Leandro Gauss; Daniel Pacheco Lacerda

Addresses: Purchasing and Logistics Coordinator, Food Industry, Rua Pedro Kolling, 773 – Centro, Brochier – RS, 95790-000, Brazil ' Postgraduate Program in Production Engineering, PPGEP/UFSC –University Campus, Trindade, Florianópolis – SC, Zip Code 88040-900, Brazil ' Department of Production and Systems Engineering, Unisinos – 950 Unisinos Ave, Cristo Rei, São Leopoldo – RS, 93022-750, Brazil ' Postgraduate Program in Production Engineering, PPGEP/UFSC –University Campus, Trindade, Florianópolis – SC, Zip Code 88040-900, Brazil

Abstract: Brazil, one of the world's largest food producers, excels in fruit farming, particularly in orange juice production, which produces a significant amount of waste, known as bagasse. While several studies explore ways to use this waste, most focus on technical aspects and overlook economic analyses. This study examines the economic feasibility and financial risk of installing a pomace dryer. The analysis used net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, applied to an orange juice producer in southern Brazil. Results show feasibility depends on scale: from 50,000 tons, with a 16% IRR and positive NPV. The study contributes theoretically by addressing investment decisions under uncertainty; scientifically, by combining deterministic and probabilistic methods; managerially, by supporting agro-industrial investment planning; and politically, by informing policies on energy efficiency and waste reuse. Limitations include fixed market assumptions and analysis of a single technology and case.

Keywords: juice industry; waste; pomace; pomace dryer; economic feasibility.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBPIM.2026.153291

International Journal of Business Process Integration and Management, 2026 Vol.13 No.1, pp.15 - 26

Received: 04 Apr 2025
Accepted: 07 Oct 2025
Published online: 01 May 2026 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article